Scorchio!
Sir Keir Starmer’s world had always been expected to end more with a whimper than a bang. In the end, following the recitation of a list of achievements that he didn’t sound like he really believed any more than the public did, the circus moved on to Euston.
Burnham’s train pulled in just shy of half an hour late and he was whisked into an underground car park. The dignity of great office, which lasts until a man with a megaphone blasts 80s remixes over your resignation statement, is already in full pomp.
When is a contest not a contest?
9 July is when nominations for the Labour leadership are due to open, closing a week later. This is the first of three stages, but if Burnham puts up at least 81 names, which looks comfortable given the 150 his camp claims to have, he will not also need to secure nominations from local parties or affiliates.
Wes Streeting’s decision to endorse Burnham comes across as strategic rather than sincere. Whoever goes against the tide is unlikely to win many friends among a Parliamentary Labour Party already slightly embarrassed to be doing this in office like the Tories.
Given that, the ensuing stages of the contest may be moot. In theory, there would be hustings and a vote, with the result announced in late August ahead of Parliament’s conference sitting from 1 September.
That foreshortening may be welcomed by Burnham’s team. There is a lot to be said for spending the summer getting your feet under the table in order to hit the ground running. Not to mention the political attraction of being Prime Minister for a good England performance at the World Cup.
But what is attractive for Burnham is not necessarily what is good for us.
Increasingly, the question has been asked whether Britain is ungovernable. It seems odd to point the finger at the people, particularly when democratic involvement is rising, rather than at the choices they are presented with. Britain is not ungovernable. While it may be that the mechanisms of the state are too badly broken for even someone extraordinary to deliver a programme of transformative political change, the country has yet to have a leader who even acknowledges the issue enough to begin to address it.
The recurrent accusation against Sir Keir was that he ran one way and governed another. The lack of any discernible “Starmerism” was not incidental to his failure. It was the failure. With no narrative or vision for where the country was to end up, there was no shield for difficult but necessary decisions, no course to use to reassure skittish new MPs.
Burnham arrives with a more developed political identity, but that makes scrutiny more important, not less. We have developed a habit of examining leaders only once they have the job. Burnham may be the right answer, but a race in which nobody asks him difficult questions would tell us very little about why.
Momentum is the word
There is then a separate Manchester milestone. The election to replace Burnham as mayor is scheduled for 30 July. It does not directly affect who becomes Prime Minister, but it will form part of the early political weather.
A comfortable Labour hold would reinforce the argument that Burnham has left behind a durable regional legacy. But while a loss risks hanging around his neck, Boris showed that owning how personal to you electoral success is can even strengthen your claim to the throne. That said, Burnham must beware the new threats posed by a multipolar political world.
A poor result would give Reform UK, currently stuttering after three failed by-elections, some wind to catch. As Janan Ganesh has argued (£), time is not on Nigel Farage’s side. At Reform’s conference last year, I saw for myself that he remains the only person capable of drawing the crowd. But by the end of his third main-stage appearance, even the true believers were flagging.
Farage is again calling for a general election; one man can sustain a sense of inevitability for only so long. The outer field team of Jenrick, Yusuf and Tice has had some success in communicating policy, but they remain props for the main protagonist.
Equally, Burnham will continue to be chased from the left by the Greens and by Labour purists who will not take any accommodation lying down. Should Wes Streeting and the Labour ‘right’ appear too prominently, there is already a well-seeded narrative of true believers abandoning the party for betraying its principles.
The task is therefore not simply to win the leadership. It is to keep together a coalition that now faces competition in both directions.
Political and real-world mercury
Once installed, Burnham will face pressure to call a general election. Constitutionally, he does not need to do so. Labour’s Commons majority belongs to the party, not personally to Starmer. Politically, however, opponents will argue that a second Prime Minister has emerged from the 2024 mandate without the public being consulted.
And as things hot up politically, one final thing to bear in mind is the weather.
Burnham should consider rereading The Leopard. Perhaps it is only because it is 34 degrees as I write this, but as we go into summer it bears saying that people can get hot and bothered. With rising costs preventing many from going on holiday, and an electorate with limited to no patience for political missteps, Burnham should hope it is not a long, hot summer.
